by The San Diego Padres’ 2024 season ended in the hated hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who swept them on Friday with a 2-0 loss in the deciding Game 5 of the National League Division Series. As these Dodgers head to the NLCS, the Padres must honor this past season and look forward to another winning streak in 2025.
But first this season. After a disappointing 2023 in which they posted an 82-80 record, the Padres traded superstar outfielder Juan Soto to the Yankees, swapped the deal for star player Dylan Cease and then won 93 games, the most since 1998 to first-year coach Mike Shildt. These 2023 Padres were largely undone by poor offensive numbers in high-leverage spots and, not without reason, a 2-12 record in extra innings with that automatic runner in action. These one-off weaknesses were supposed to be fixed this year, and that’s exactly what happened. The Pads stepped up offensively in 2024 when the game was on the line, going 10-2 in regular season extras for good reason. Fundamentally, the 2024 team wasn’t all that different from the 2023 model, but they were very different in the overall standings. This time they made it back to the postseason, defeating the Braves in the Wild Card Series before falling to the Dodgers.
Elsewhere, in a year when batting averages across the league declined, the Padres scored their most runs in a season since 2004. When you consider the entire league and ballpark context, the 2024 Padres may have the best offensive attack in the Franchise history compiled. That’s a feat made even more impressive in light of the Soto trade. Eight players reached double-digit home runs and six hit at least 15 this season. Manny Machado led the team in home runs, Jurickson Profar enjoyed a career year, Fernando Tatis Jr. was his usual self when healthy and Jackson Merrill was a rookie sensation. Cease and Michael King, who came to the Padres as part of the Soto blockbusterformed an impressive front end of the rotation.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Padres likely have several notables heading to free agency this winter: shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, Profar, catcher Kyle Higashioka, left-hander Martín Pérez and reliever Tanner Scott. In 2024, these five players contributed a combined 9.3 WAR to San Diego. Bringing back some of those names and finding suitable replacements for the others should be a priority this offseason. It’s not certain how much Padres ownership is willing to invest toward this end, but significant staff cuts will hurt the team’s chances next year. Additionally, Tommy John surgery for right-handed starter Joe Musgrove means he will likely miss the entire 2025 season. While he was limited by health issues the last two seasons, he was an ace for the Padres when healthy and therefore won’t be easily replaced. What’s notable is that, at least in 2025, there isn’t much help from an agricultural system that has been thinned by commercial activity in recent years.
However, the returning core is impressive. Under contract or under team control at least through next season are Machado, Tatis, Cease, King, Yu Darvish, Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, Merrill and others. That’s a strong foundation no matter what happens to the rest of the roster, and based on that foundation, the Padres are once again considered contenders, especially with three wild card spots available in each league.
As suggested above, the Padres’ ownership isn’t as strong as it used to be since Peter Seidler’s death. Under Seidler, the small-market-share Padres went from ninth in Opening Day payroll in 2021 to fifth in 2022 and third in 2023, according to Cot’s Contracts estimates. This season, the first since Seidler’s death, the Padres, however, lost nearly $85 million from that number on Opening Day in 2023 and ranked 14th in the MLB by 2024. Padres owners must stop the bleeding immediately and ensure key decision-maker AJ Preller has the resources he needs, to continue pursuing the franchise’s first World Series title. The conditions for such a run are there, but owners must do their part to return to the playoffs in 2025 and beyond.
