by The Mets face an interesting dilemma with their starting rotation heading into the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the one hand, they can fill four starting spots with reliable pitchers, all of whom have performed admirably in the postseason, well above what the Dodgers can offer.
And if they really want to get crazy, they can add three more pitchers who are currently stuck in the bullpen and could provide a start to the postseason if needed. That’s seven (!) potential starters the Mets could turn to – truly an embarrassment of riches at a point in the season when playoff teams are often fighting for healthy arms.
On the other hand, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious first choice in the group at the moment. It’s a good problem, but a problem nonetheless – even if the stakes of the discussion are relatively low at the moment. So let’s lay it out:
The front: Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga and Luis Severino.
Options: José Buttó, Tylor Megil and David Peterson.
With the front line all entering the series healthy, it’s unlikely we’ll see any of the three backup options other than a piggyback or backup role. With this in mind, let’s design a pitching strategy.
Games 1 and 5: Sean Manaea
Of the four frontline options, Quintana is the only one likely to be left out of Game 1 entirely as he would be on short rest.
The Mets could also rule out Senga if they want him to serve an extended stint at some point in the series. This would likely require him to pitch a sim game or an extended bullpen session this weekend, which would rule him out of Sunday’s game.
That leaves two realistic options: Manaea and Severino, both of which present convincing arguments. Manaea was the team’s most valuable pitcher this season, according to Baseball Reference WAR (3.0) and FanGraphs WAR (2.8), while Severino has the most postseason experience of any Mets starter (55). 2⁄3 innings pitched). But there is a way the team can utilize both qualities, which would require Manaea to start Game 1 with a regular break.
Manaea may not be the “ace” of the team, but he’s certainly throwing like one right now. He has given up three combined runs in his two postseason starts, a Game 2 loss to the Brewers in the Wild Card Series and a Game 3 win to the Phillies in the Division Series. And more importantly, he’s gotten out of the blunders that kept the Mets’ late-arriving bats from doing too much work.
Severino could absolutely make the pitch in Game 1 as well, especially considering how good he was in his two road starts. But since there’s no obvious reason to pick anyone else, it makes sense to hand Game 1 to the best starter both throughout the season and at the current moment.
But how did he fare against Shohei Ohtani? Actually pretty good. Manaea has allowed two hits and two walks in nine plate appearances against the two-time MVP, while allowing just one RBI and no extra-base hits.
Games 2 and 6: Jose Quintana
“But wait, didn’t we just talk about Severino?” Yes! And Severino could absolutely pitch Game 2 for all the reasons he could pitch Game 1.
So why Quintana? Here are some reasons:
- Quintana would take a regular break for Game 2, similar to Manaea for Game 1.
- Quintana has hit better away from home (.664 OPS against) than at home (.775 OPS against) this season, and both Games 2 and 6 would be on the road.
- Of the three Mets pitchers to make two starts this postseason, Quintana pitched the best (0 ER over 11 IP).
That’s an outstanding list for a pitcher who has been so hot and cold this season.
Many Mets fans would find it strange to name Quintana the No. 2 pitcher in such an important series, especially when almost every other starter is available on regular or extended rest. But sometimes the postseason is about going with the hot hand, no matter how cool and comfortable Quintana looks on the mound.
But how does he stack up against Ohtani? Unclear – Quintana and Ohtani have never faced each other.
Games 3 and 7: Luis Severino
If Severino starts Game 3, it’s less about Game 3 and more about him being available for Game 7. Since the roster has the most postseason experience, a smart option would be to have Severino start the game with the highest leverage (away, no less). .
Of course, Severino wouldn’t be the only option for this place. The Mets could have Severino pitching Game 2 and Quintana pitching Game 3 without us complaining.
And if Severino had an extended rest for any game in the series, why wouldn’t he extend that rest even further into Game 3 instead of Game 1?
Yes, but Ohtani? He struck out Severino – three hits and two walks in eight career plate appearances, including a home run and a double for a 1.792 OPS. Yes.
Game 4: Kodai Senga
Senga started Game 1 of the Division Series because it made strategic sense. In order to ramp up Senga enough to make him a viable regular option for the postseason, the Mets needed to get started as quickly as possible.
But it also made sense from a narrative perspective. He finished last season as the Mets’ ace and, if healthy, will most likely be the Mets’ ace next season as well. Giving him Game 1 — with Peterson, a strong player, in backup — was a win-win for a team that added an All-Star pitcher to its postseason roster.
However, Senga isn’t ready to go five full innings just yet, and to get to that point he’ll need to put in some work this weekend that will keep him out of the first few games. That could also rule Senga out of multiple starts in this series, but starting Game 4 would also put him on track for Game 1 of the… World Series?
Wait, are we talking about this?
Ohtani? Senga and Ohtani faced each other in just one MLB game – and with two walks and a double in three plate appearances, Ohtani won that battle.
But these two also faced each other many times as Pacific League rivals in Japan’s NPB. How did Senga do?
(I have no idea – but I found this video of Ohtani and Senga facing off in a 2016 NPB pitching duel. Make of that what you will.)
The Mets could end up choosing a different rotation order than the one laid out here – in fact, the smart move could be that they literally choose a different rotation order. But the Mets are in an enviable position with so many encouraging options, and it would be difficult to argue with the order no matter the decision.
