Non-playoff teams could win this round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs

It has been 10 years since NASCAR implemented the current playoff format in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. It is a format that includes three elimination rounds of three races each, culminating in a Championship Four.

Race victories have generally been achieved by teams in the playoffs, but the last two race winners have come from drivers who did not make the 16-team playoff field.

Ross Chastain cruised to victory at Kansas Speedway on September 29th and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the crash-filled race at Talladega Superspeedway on October 6th.

It is the first time in the current format that two of the three races in a round will be contested by drivers who are not in contention for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship.

If a road course ace like Kaulig Racing’s Shane van Gisbergen, who won the pole Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway, or defending champion AJ Allmendinger won on the Roval, non-playoff drivers would win an entire round.

The Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is one of three elimination races in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. The first eliminator was the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 14th. 12 of the 16 drivers progressed and four drivers were eliminated.

The second round of eliminations takes place on Sunday at Charlotte Motor Speedway when the eight drivers advance to the round of eight and four other drivers are eliminated.

The final elimination round is the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway on November 3rd, when the round of eight becomes the “Championship Four” that will compete for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship on November 10th at Phoenix Raceway.

The champion will be the highest ranked driver from the Championship Four. Until last year, the champion was also the winner of the race, but Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain won the race after failing to advance to the round of eight.

A playoff driver who wins a race in each round advances to the next round. If there are three winners in the three-race round, all three advance and the remaining eligible drivers advance to the next round based on points.

Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott is currently the eighth-place driver, while two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano of Team Penske is 13 points from the cutline.

Trackhouse’s Daniel Suarez is 10^ThAustin Cindric of Team Penske 11^Thand Stewart Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe 12^Th32 points from the cut line.

Briscoe realizes that he has to win to stay in the playoffs and that he can’t advance based on points.

“I think for us, honestly, it’s better when we’re in the position where we’re 32 or whatever versus 15, because when you’re 15 or even 20, that’s doable,” Briscoe said, referring focus on getting to the next round with points. “Since we’re 30, we just see it as an unconditional win, at least for us.

“You could maybe show the way in, but a lot of things would have to go your way.

“I think it honestly opens up a lot for us from a strategic perspective just to start with the approach of flipping the track position and everything else.

“It’s obviously unfortunate to be below the limit, but honestly I would much prefer 30 points to 15, just because I think it makes it a little clearer what you need to do from a strategic point of view.” And from all routes in This round is where I feel the most confident to come here and fight for the win, so let’s hope we can do that.”

Because the drivers who didn’t make the original 16-driver playoff field won the final two races, it actually helped several drivers in the playoffs advance through points rather than wins.

“I think it’s good to be on the edge for sure, because when guys win in the playoffs, the line moves further and further down,” Briscoe explained. “So I think for the guys near the cut line it definitely makes it a little bit easier, but for us, where we’re at, it honestly doesn’t matter.

“I think it definitely makes a difference. You know, the first round is right. If I don’t win the race, I’ll cheer for a non-playoff player to win just because it makes it a lot easier.”

Briscoe believes pole winner Van Gisbergen, known as SVG, and Allmendinger could be the winner on the roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway. That would create more intrigue and drama than if a playoff driver won and advanced.

“I think that again, just from a strategic perspective, there will be more rotations than any other oval race we have,” Briscoe said. “So it definitely wouldn’t surprise me if a non-playoff player wins, but hopefully a playoff player wins.”

Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron has already advanced to the next round as he enters the race as the championship leader. Mathematically, he’s in, but the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet can compete in the race with little to lose.

The drivers who have won in the last two weeks and possibly Sunday and are not participating in the playoffs can enter with nothing to lose.

“Usually when you’re not in the playoffs you can just be more aggressive,” Byron said. “When you’re in the playoffs, you’re counting points and trying to get yourself into position.

“That changes a little in the next round. But in this round you’re probably just trying to get through these events.

“It doesn’t matter to us. I think we will be in the group similar to the non-playoff players. it is more aggressive. So it will be nice to do that.”

One of Byron’s teammates at Hendrick Motorsports, Chase Elliott, is another driver who actually expects a driver like Van Gisbergen or Allmendinger to win the race.

“I think that if everything goes well this weekend, the chances of someone who isn’t in the playoffs winning are pretty high,” Elliott told me Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway. “Of course there are great road racers like SVG, but if you don’t worry about the points and you don’t worry about the end of the stage, you can really be in a good position for the next stage. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole round went like this.”

Kyle Larson, another Hendrick Motorsports driver, 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion and 2024 Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year, gave a great explanation as to why the last two winners came from outside the playoff field.

“I don’t think that’s particularly unusual in the next-gen era,” Larson told me. “I think we’ve seen a lot of winners since this car was introduced, so it’s not at all surprising.

“If you want to win, you’d probably prefer a non-playoff player win anyway. There are no extra bonus points and stuff like that, so I hope I win and I hope the other playoff players don’t.

“Unless it’s a teammate.”

Logano won the NASCAR Cup Series championships in 2017 and 2022. But his pursuit of a third Cup title is tenuous given his position in the points.

Would a win by a driver not in the playoffs help or hinder Logano’s cause?

“It depends on who you are,” Logano told me. “When you’re on the cutting line, you’d rather not see that, right? It just depends on who you are and where you are as to which playoff player wins.”

The trendsetters are Chastain and Stenhouse, but it shouldn’t be a surprise to see them finish in Victory Lane. Stenhouse has two victories at Talladega Superspeedway, including Oct. 6, and won the Daytona 500 in 2023.

Chastain is one of NASCAR’s most exciting drivers, especially after vaulting him into the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series championship race with his final-lap “Hail Melon” effort at Martinsville Speedway.

Chastain did not win a race in the first 26 races of the NASCAR regular season and therefore did not make the playoffs. But with his victory at Kansas Speedway, he ensured he has a win in 2024.

“I don’t think it’s unusual for a non-playoff driver to win races in the playoffs,” Stenhouse told me Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway. “I think the sport is so competitive right now and the cars are so close together that it doesn’t take much for a non-playoff player to win.

“Back when we were all building our own cars and things were completely different, any time we weren’t in the playoffs, if we had good runs, top-10 runs, top-5 runs in the playoffs, it was possible for us Playoffs, you always felt good knowing that everyone who was in the playoffs brought the best that they had and that they had worked on all season to the race track.

“I feel like you know there’s really not a lot of other stuff you can bring to the track. We are all so close.

“This trend can continue any weekend. It’s about implementing things and putting yourself in the right position, developing good strategies and taking advantage of the breaks.

“I think each of us, when you put new tires on and the caution comes out and you suddenly find yourself on the front row of this thing, there are a lot of drivers who can win. And that on every race track. I literally think you can see a lot of people win that aren’t in the playoffs.

“It’s just a wild sport we’re in right now and the way the strategy can be implemented.”