by Dave Dombrowski and Rob Thomson will take their place at the podium in the media room at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday and answer questions for nearly an hour about the Phillies’ collapse in 2024, their largely pathetic NLDS performance against the Mets and how they did it can break out of the backward trend they got into.
Don’t expect a ton of detail about individual players’ futures, that’s not the style of Dombrowski or pretty much any modern manager, but neither man should feel guilty after this season of World Series-or-bust aspirations tumbled off and burned.
The Phillies face many questions and decisions this offseason. Including:
How do they fix the offense?
They fielded most of the same team in 2023-24, and given the record payroll and limited window to win with the current core of Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, Trea Turner and the others, it’s unlikely that will happen anymore will happen once.
Harper believes his prime can last another decade, and most of the players in this clubhouse will say they don’t believe the window has closed or is closing, but that’s what athletes say. Father Time doesn’t have to argue his point, he strikes and that’s all. This particular group – the one that includes Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos… all guys whose contracts are less than a decade old – may have simply watched their top three opportunities come and go.
The setup needs to be fixed. Left field and center field are a problem. Johan Rojas is talented defensively, but likely can only be added to a contender’s lineup if the other eight spots are rock solid. He’s low on the list of culprits for the NLDS performance, but is the easiest and clearest starting point when it comes to offensive improvements in a largely inflexible lineup.
The Brandon Marsh train situation also needs to be addressed. Platoons can work — the Mets use one with Jesse Winker and JD Martinez — but you’re asking for trouble if you run platoons at multiple positions. There were times this season when the Phillies did this in three different locations. It takes so much to get right for a handful of players to live up to all their expectations. It often sounds better in theory than it works in practice.
If the Phillies keep Marsh as a platoon outfielder, his partner will have to be someone more productive than Austin Hays. Part of Hays’ poor second half was due to a kidney infection and a hamstring strain, but the Phillies can’t just hope or assume he returns to the best version of himself before 2025. They need more help in the outfield whether he does or not.
Where do Bohm and Stott fall?
Alec Bohm started in the All-Star Game this season and took a step forward despite the miserable end to his year. He hit .280, he set a career high with 44 doubles and an OPS of .779, he hit over .300 with runners in scoring position.
He was also benched in Game 2 of the NLDS due to a combination of bad shots and bad reactions to those bad shots. It would have sounded shocking all season to hear that Bohm would be on the bench for Game 2 of the playoffs, so it was hard not to understand what that meant for his future. The Phillies, as previously mentioned, have a tight grip on their starters at seven positions, so rebuilding the offense will require some creativity.
Bohm was asked after the Phillies’ season ended if he thought he was at a crossroads in his career.
“No. I know where I’ll be next year,” he said, indicating it would be Philly.
Stott posted a .200 batting average in 160 at-bats this season while throwing a fastball 93 miles per hour or more. Last season he hit .319 in an even larger sample. He’s struggled to keep up with the pace for most of the year, and the Phillies need to quickly figure out if that’s a fixable problem or if he could drastically lower his ceiling.
Will Hoffman return?
Jeff Hoffman posted a 1.65 ERA in the final weekend of the regular season, then allowed 10 runs in 2⅓ innings and suffered two of the Phillies’ three playoff losses.
He is a free agent and his track record in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons should lead to a nice payday. But can the Phillies be the team to pay him $12-13 million per year over a three-year deal after what they saw in the playoffs? It’s so difficult to judge volunteers because, depending on the situation and time of year, sometimes a handful of missions can outweigh the dozens before them.
The Phillies still have a lot of work to do this winter, and considering how much money Hoffman’s team is likely seeking, that’s a mistake.
Defensive changes?
Turner has been one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball since he signed with the Phillies, perhaps the worst. In 2023, his 23 errors led the majors. In 2024, he committed 17 errors in 35 fewer games and had the same fielding percentage.
The errors are not all of the same type. Some are routine bobbles. Some are bad throws. Turner is a great athlete who hasn’t lost that part of his game, but shortstop doesn’t seem to be his long-term position, and if the Phillies are honest with themselves and try to put together the best possible roster for 2025, that could be the case involves moving Turner away from shortstop.
It’s a decision they don’t want to make as he’s only completed two years of his 11-year contract. Turner wasn’t signed for $300 million as a left fielder, center fielder or second baseman. But he’s underwhelmed at shortstop, and a defensive change could also help him stay healthier and more effective for six full months.
Behind the plate
JT Realmuto was considered the best catcher in baseball when the Phillies acquired him from Miami and then re-signed him to a five-year, $115.5 million contract that ends after 2025.
He’s no longer the best catcher in baseball. He still has one of the best all-around skills for a backstop, but the bat isn’t what it once was.
From 2016 to 2022, Realmuto hit .278 with an OPS of .802.
Over the last two seasons, he hit .258 with an OPS of .757.
He went 0-for-11 in the playoffs, lowering his postseason batting average to .216 and his on-base percentage to .295.
The Phillies have no choice but to keep him fresher in 2025. He played 134, 139 and 135 games from 2021 to 2023 and would have approached those numbers this season if not for a meniscus injury.
A more capable backup for Realmuto is a necessity, someone who could start 50 games if needed without cratering production. Rafael Marchan is 25 years old and has impressed in short stints, including this summer when he hit .294 in Realmuto’s place.
Marchan, who was often injured during his minor league career, should be ready to take on the role as Realmuto’s backup. That is, unless the Phillies use him as a trade for something else and find a replacement elsewhere.
There are many more questions the Phillies will face in the four months until pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater, and many will be asked of Dombrowski and Thomson next Tuesday. The year-end press conference is taking place much earlier than hoped.
